Predictive Value of the Triglyceride-Glucose Index for Progression From Prediabetes to Type 2 Diabetes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61336/jdme.0601.01Keywords:
Triglyceride-glucose index, prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, insulin resistance, diabetes progressionAbstract
The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is an accessible surrogate marker of insulin resistance and may help identify individuals with prediabetes who are at increased risk of progressing to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This prospective cohort study evaluated the predictive value of baseline TyG for progression from prediabetes to T2DM over a 3-year follow-up period. A total of 218 adults with prediabetes were enrolled and underwent baseline assessment of fasting glucose, triglycerides, HbA1c, insulin, lipid profile, anthropometric measures, and blood pressure. The TyG index was calculated from fasting triglyceride and glucose concentrations. Participants were followed at 6-month intervals, with annual assessment of glycemic status. During follow-up, 52 participants developed T2DM. Baseline TyG values were significantly higher among participants who subsequently developed diabetes. The cumulative incidence of T2DM increased progressively across TyG tertiles. Participants in the highest TyG tertile had higher BMI, waist circumference, fasting glucose, HbA1c, and HOMA-IR at baseline. After adjustment for age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, HbA1c, and physical activity, higher TyG remained independently associated with progression to T2DM. Participants in the highest TyG tertile had approximately 3.4-fold greater risk of developing T2DM than those in the lowest tertile. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated moderate predictive discrimination for the TyG index, which improved when TyG was combined with HbA1c and BMI. These findings suggest that the TyG index may provide useful additional information for identifying adults with prediabetes who have a higher likelihood of progressing to T2DM.
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